Massive Loss of Production, Price Increase, and Reasons Why Fertiliser Boss Says War Puts 10 Billion Meals a Week at Risk

INTRO: The reasons why Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Yara, one of the world’s biggest fertiliser producers says war puts 10 billion meals a week at risk were thoughtfully laid out. Speaking to the BBC, he warned that the war in Iran and blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupting fertiliser supplies and threatening global food production. Here are five key reasons why the fertiliser boss says war puts 10 billion meals a week at risk.

1. Massive Loss of Nitrogen Fertiliser Production: The first of the reasons why fertiliser boss says war puts 10 billion meals a week at risk is the sheer scale of lost output. “We’re up to half a million tons of nitrogen fertiliser not being produced in the world right now because of the situation we are in,” Holsether said. Hostilities in the Gulf have halted plants and blocked shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Without nitrogen, crop yields can collapse quickly.

2. Direct Hit to Crop Yields and Meal Output: Holsether tied the fertiliser shortfall directly to food. “What does that mean for food production? I would get to up to 10 billion meals that will not be produced every week as a result of the lack of fertilisers.” He explained that not applying nitrogen fertiliser would reduce yields for some crops by as much as 50% in the first season. This is central to his argument: fewer inputs mean far less food.

3. Fertiliser Prices Up 80% Since War Began: Soaring costs add to the crisis and are among the reasons why the fertiliser boss says war puts 10 billion meals a week at risk. The price of fertiliser has increased by 80% since the beginning of the US and Israel’s war on Iran. Farmers already face higher diesel, energy, and input costs, Holsether noted, “but yet the crop prices haven’t increased to the same extent yet.” Many will cut fertiliser use, further shrinking harvests.

4. Risk of Global Bidding War That Hits Poorest Hardest: A continuation of the conflict could trigger a bidding war for food between richer and poorer nations. That geopolitical risk is one of the reasons why Holsether says war puts 10 billion meals a week at risk. “If there’s a bidding war on food and one that Europe is robust enough to handle… who are we buying the food away from?” Holsether asked. He warned that “the most vulnerable people pay the highest price for this in developing nations where they cannot afford to follow that,” leading to food scarcity and hunger.

5. Compounded Pressure on Farmers Already Under Strain: Farmers worldwide are caught in a cost squeeze, the final of the reasons why fertiliser boss says war puts 10 billion meals a week at risk. “They’re faced with higher energy costs, diesel for a tractor is increasing, other inputs for the farmers are increasing, fertiliser cost is increasing,” Holsether said. With margins crushed, many will plant less or skip fertiliser, locking in lower yields. That hits poorest countries hardest, as they rely on imports and have little buffer.

Conclusion

The reasons why Holsether says war puts 10 billion meals a week at risk led him to urge European nations to weigh the impact of a price war on the “most vulnerable” elsewhere. With food affordability already under stress, the Yara chief stressed that disruptions to fertiliser flow are not just an agribusiness problem — they’re a global hunger problem.

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