Elections are a fundamental mechanism for altering the power balance in any society. Ideally, they provide an avenue for the peaceful transfer of power, allowing citizens to choose their leaders through a transparent and credible process. However, in many contexts, elections are marred by violence, often fueled by unresolved grievances, political exclusion, socio-economic disparities, and the activities of spoilers who seek to maintain their influence by any means necessary. In Nigeria, electoral violence remains a recurring challenge, with each election cycle witnessing varying degrees of conflict, ranging from intimidation and ballot box snatching to large-scale communal clashes.
There are many reasons for and causes of electoral violence in Nigeria but two key dynamics influence whether elections proceed peacefully or descend into violence. The first relates to the broader context in which elections take place. Countries or regions with a history of political violence, unresolved conflicts, and deep-seated grievances are more likely to experience electoral violence. In such environments, political actors and their supporters often resort to violent tactics to secure victory or undermine their opponents. This is particularly evident in Nigeria, where ethnic and religious divisions, coupled with economic inequality, contribute to a tense political atmosphere. The second dynamic concerns the quality of the electoral process itself. A well-organized, transparent, and inclusive electoral process can help mitigate the risks of violence. Conversely, flawed electoral processes—characterized by voter suppression, rigging, and lack of trust in electoral institutions—can escalate tensions and trigger violence.
The electoral process consists of multiple phases, each of which can either contribute to peace or become a flashpoint for violence. The pre-election phase involves the establishment of legal and institutional frameworks, planning and programming, training and education, and voter registration. Issues such as the composition of the electoral management body, voter eligibility rules, and the integrity of the voter registration process can become contentious. When certain groups feel excluded or perceive the electoral process as biased, they may resort to violence to express their dissatisfaction. In Nigeria, allegations of voter suppression and manipulation of voter registers have frequently led to unrest, particularly in areas where political competition is fierce.
The election period itself is another critical phase, encompassing campaigning, voting operations, and result verification. Campaign periods are often characterized by intense rivalry between political parties, with candidates and their supporters employing various strategies to outmaneuver their opponents. In some cases, this competition turns violent, as politicians hire thugs to intimidate voters, attack opponents, or disrupt rallies. The role of security agencies during this period is crucial; however, in Nigeria, security forces have sometimes been accused of bias, excessive force, or complicity in electoral malpractice. On election day, violence may erupt at polling stations, especially if there are allegations of vote rigging, malfunctioning electoral materials, or delays in the voting process. The verification and announcement of results can also be highly contentious, particularly when the losing party rejects the outcome and mobilizes supporters to protest.
Post-election violence is another major concern. While it is often linked to the elections themselves, its underlying causes may be rooted in deeper structural issues such as political marginalization, weak institutions, and lack of faith in the justice system. In Nigeria, the aftermath of elections has frequently been marred by violence, with protests, destruction of property, and clashes between rival political groups. This underscores the importance of credible electoral dispute resolution mechanisms, which can provide aggrieved parties with legal avenues to address their concerns rather than resorting to violence. However, the effectiveness and impartiality of these mechanisms remain a subject of debate, as many Nigerians believe that the judiciary is often influenced by political interests.
International IDEA, a global organization that studies electoral processes and democracy, has identified 26 internal and 10 external risk factors that can trigger election-related violence. Internal factors are election-specific and include issues related to electoral actors, events, and procedures across different phases of the electoral cycle. These factors can range from flawed voter registration processes and biased electoral commissions to inadequate security arrangements and disputes over electoral results. External factors, on the other hand, exist outside the immediate electoral context but can still influence the likelihood of violence. These include socio-economic conditions, political exclusion, gender-based discrimination, the presence of non-state armed actors, organized crime, historical grievances related to past conflicts, and human rights violations.
Poor socio-economic conditions play a significant role in fueling electoral violence. High unemployment rates, poverty, and lack of access to basic services can create a pool of disenchanted youth who are easily mobilized for violent activities. In Nigeria, political actors often exploit economic vulnerabilities by offering money, food, or promises of employment in exchange for engaging in electoral violence. This not only undermines the integrity of the democratic process but also perpetuates a cycle of political thuggery, where violence becomes an accepted means of securing power.
Political and social exclusion also contribute to electoral violence. When certain groups feel marginalized from the political process—either due to ethnic, religious, or regional biases—they may resort to violence as a means of asserting their rights. In Nigeria, there have been longstanding tensions between different ethnic and religious groups, with elections often serving as a battleground for these divisions. The perception that political power is monopolized by a particular group can trigger violent reactions from those who feel excluded, leading to clashes before, during, and after elections.
Conflict related to changing power dynamics is another critical factor. In many cases, elections are seen not just as a means of selecting leaders but as a struggle for control over economic resources and political influence. When the balance of power shifts—especially in a way that threatens the interests of entrenched elites—violence may be used as a tool to resist change. This has been evident in Nigeria, where attempts to implement electoral reforms or introduce new political players have sometimes been met with fierce opposition, including violent attacks on reform advocates.
Gender-based discrimination and violence also shape the electoral landscape. Women candidates and voters often face intimidation, harassment, and physical attacks, discouraging their participation in the political process. In Nigeria, cultural and societal norms sometimes reinforce these barriers, making it difficult for women to compete on an equal footing with their male counterparts. This not only undermines democratic inclusivity but also restricts the range of voices represented in governance.
The presence of non-state armed actors and organized crime further exacerbates electoral violence. In some parts of Nigeria, armed groups and criminal syndicates play a significant role in elections, either by coercing voters, disrupting polling stations, or engaging in post-election violence. These groups are often used by politicians to intimidate opponents and influence electoral outcomes, creating an environment of fear and insecurity.
Historical grievances related to past atrocities, such as genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes, also have implications for electoral violence. In societies where such grievances have not been adequately addressed, elections can reignite tensions and lead to violent confrontations. Similarly, human rights violations, such as police brutality and suppression of dissent, can erode public trust in the electoral process and provoke violent responses from affected communities.
Environmental hazards, though less commonly discussed, can also impact electoral violence. Natural disasters, displacement, and resource scarcity can create conditions of instability, making elections more prone to violence. For instance, in areas affected by flooding or drought, competition over resources may intersect with political rivalries, leading to heightened tensions.
Unethical media reporting plays a crucial role in shaping public perceptions of elections and can either mitigate or escalate violence. Sensationalist reporting, misinformation, and biased coverage can inflame tensions, spread panic, and incite violence among political supporters. In Nigeria, social media has increasingly become a tool for political manipulation, with fake news and inflammatory rhetoric contributing to electoral unrest.
Addressing electoral violence in Nigeria requires a multifaceted approach that tackles both process-related and structural causes. Strengthening electoral institutions, ensuring transparency in electoral processes, promoting political inclusivity, addressing socio-economic disparities, and enhancing security measures are all essential steps. Additionally, fostering a culture of political tolerance and civic education can help reduce the tendency toward violence. Ultimately, the goal should be to create a democratic environment where elections are seen as fair, credible, and an effective means of expressing the will of the people—without the threat of violence.
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