The Institute for the Study of War Gives Reason Why Russia is Moving Military Equipment at Syrian Bases

In a significant development, Russia appears to be preparing for a partial military withdrawal from Syria, as evidenced by recent movements of military equipment and personnel. Analysts have highlighted satellite imagery showing a buildup of military vehicles at key Russian-controlled sites, including a port and an airbase in western Syria. This movement is believed to indicate a strategic shift, possibly in response to the changing political landscape following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government.

Satellite images have revealed a notable increase in military vehicles at the Russian-controlled port of Tartous and the Hmeimim airbase. Transport aircraft have been observed arriving and departing the country in recent days, suggesting the beginning phases of an evacuation or repositioning effort. BBC Verify has corroborated these observations, geolocating videos that show extensive columns of Russian military trucks moving north towards these bases.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, suggests that these movements indicate preparations for a reduction or complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria. The think tank posits that the relocation of military vehicles to key bases might be a precautionary measure as Moscow negotiates with the new government in Damascus.

Russia's military involvement in Syria has been significant, especially during the rule of Bashar al-Assad. Russian forces played a crucial role in helping Assad maintain power after the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. The strategic importance of Russia’s bases in Syria cannot be overstated. The port at Tartous, established by the Soviet Union in the 1970s and modernized by Russia in 2012, and the Hmeimim airbase, operational since 2015, have been pivotal in Russia's military operations across Syria.

These bases have also provided Russia with strategic advantages, offering easier access to the Middle East, North Africa, and the Mediterranean Sea. However, the recent political upheaval and the fall of Assad have raised questions about the future of Russia's military presence in the region.

On Monday, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that there have been "no final decisions" regarding a withdrawal and that Russia remains "in contact with representatives of the forces that now control the situation in [Syria]." This statement aligns with the ongoing uncertainty and strategic deliberations within the Russian government.

BBC Verify has been closely monitoring activities at the Hmeimim airbase using Planet Labs satellite imagery. These images show sustained activity involving sizable military transport planes. Notably, two large Antonov An-124 aircraft, which are often used for moving heavy assets, were seen at the base on Friday. By Tuesday, these aircraft had departed, but two more large planes were observed at the base by Wednesday morning.

Additional imagery from Maxar Technologies taken on Sunday shows dozens of military vehicles parked at the airfield near a Russian-made Ilyushin Il-76 military transport plane. This setup could facilitate evacuations, indicating serious preparations for moving personnel and equipment.

BBC Verify tracked one of the large Russian Antonov An-124 aircraft using the plane tracking website Flightradar24. The aircraft was seen traveling over Russian airspace towards Syria but disappeared from public tracking off the Syrian coast, likely due to its tracker being switched off. The plane reappeared heading back north six hours later, reinforcing suspicions of covert logistical operations.

David Heathcote, intelligence manager at McKenzie Intelligence, highlighted the unusual activity at Hmeimim airbase, suggesting that Russia might be storing resources while preparing for a potential withdrawal. The rapid collapse of the Assad government likely disrupted any pre-existing evacuation plans, necessitating swift and possibly improvised adjustments.

Tayfun Ozberk, a former naval officer and defense analyst, agreed with this assessment, noting the early signs of a Russian withdrawal. The presence of Il-76 aircraft, the absence of Russian vessels at Tartous, and the organized pre-staging of vehicles and equipment all point towards an air-based evacuation strategy.

Recent reports indicated that Russian warships had left the port at Tartous, with analysts suggesting they were being stationed in international waters temporarily. These vessels have not returned, but satellite images show that over 100 military vehicles have arrived at the base in recent days. Heathcote noted that these vehicles are likely being prepared for evacuation, although the absence of loading ramps and cranes suggests that the process might not be immediate.

Recent footage also shows large columns of Russian vehicles on the move, indicating they have been redirected from various outposts across Syria. BBC Verify geolocated these movements to a major highway, suggesting the vehicles are heading north towards key bases.

One 80-second video published on social media platform X shows a long line of Russian vehicles geolocated to 30 kilometers south of Homs. Another video depicts a column of Russian vehicles on the same highway, 70 kilometers outside Damascus. Anton Mardasov, a non-resident scholar in the Middle East Institute’s Syria program, commented that Russia is now withdrawing units and military equipment previously deployed in nearly a hundred strongholds across the country.

The potential withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria marks a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the region. Russia’s military presence has been a cornerstone of its influence in the Middle East. A reduction or complete withdrawal would have far-reaching implications for regional stability and power dynamics.

As Russia negotiates with the new regime in Damascus, the future of its strategic bases at Tartous and Hmeimim remains uncertain. These bases have provided Russia with critical access and influence, and their status will be a key factor in any negotiations.

The international community will be closely monitoring these developments, as they could signal broader changes in Russian military strategy and foreign policy. The situation remains fluid, with analysts and experts continuing to assess the implications of Russia’s potential withdrawal from Syria.

While the final decision remains unconfirmed, the evidence suggests that Russia is reassessing its military strategy in light of the political changes in Damascus. The outcome of these deliberations will have significant implications for the future of Russian-Syrian relations and the broader geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East.